Reflecting on Loonshots on the water and at work
Safi Bahcall's Loonshots took all my biases, hunches, and hopes about organizations and business – and provided instead an evidence informed roadmap on how to nurture, and deliver upon, crazy ideas that make a difference! Loonshots are fragile, yet bold; obvious, but only in retrospective; and above all else they require organizations and teams to implement systems and structures that build the dynamic equilibrium and phase separation needed for success. That last point may seem technical but it’s incredibly intuitive and one of the great wow moments of the book.
As always I wanted to weave my reflections into a paddling story. I do this not because it’s a better way to frame the information – it’s objectively not – but because in blending my professional and personal passions I have opportunities to make and create deeper connections on both sides of the equation. I am happy to share in these and encourage you to think about how Loonshots concepts may translate into your own passions, sport, art, volunteering etc. I’m a firm believer that there is no such thing as professional development, only personal development.
The Fragile Balance of Big Ideas
I was paddling down familiar territory along the Ottawa River, the morning water calm and inviting. As my friend and I ventured further, the gentle lapping of waves grew larger and more chaotic as the river widened, reminding us of the delicate balance of our boats on the water. Bahcall speaks of "The Surprising Fragility of Big Ideas," highlighting how breakthrough innovations—loonshots—are often as unstable as a kayak being buffeted by the big and often unseen forces upon the open water.
The power of momentum and inertia, especially in large organizations, can easily crush an idea before it hits the water. Tradition, risk aversion, and resistance to change are all key contributors to killing or burying great ideas before they launch. Those who do get to launch are often scrutinized harshly, discounted each time they take on water, and shelved after capsizing even once. Navigating these waters requires a keen awareness of the fragility of big ideas. It means giving these ideas more protection and being more resilient in their stewardship.
It also means learning to pivot and learn from failure. Part of learning from failure is knowing when a failure is a false fail or a true fail. A false fail occurs when a promising idea is prematurely dismissed due to flawed testing or poor understanding, while a true fail genuinely lacks potential. Bahcall highlights the inventors of Satins as a form of cancer therapy to replace chemotherapy for children, Drs. Endo and Folkman who are now heralded as great inventors, but arguably their greatest skill was investigating failure. Their boat had capsized many times, but they were able to learn, explore, and continue with resilience - their Loonshot has since grown to a 90 Billion Industry and saved countless lives.
Navigating with Purpose: P-Type and S-Type Loonshots
On the water, a kayaker must be mindful of both the vessel and the journey ahead. Similarly, Bahcall differentiates between P-type (product) and S-type (strategy) loonshots. The P-type is your kayak—by making my own boat incredibly light and long with a comfortable cockpit I could challenge all but the most expensive boats in long-distance races, but would fail easily against the rapids. The S-type is strategy, your route planning, knowing how the underwater currents flow can help add significant speed on long distance courses. Both of these innovations can give you the edge; neglecting one can leave you adrift or, worse, heading toward treacherous waters.
It is also critical to know how and when to prioritize one or the other, recognizing the context you find yourself in. Pan Am was famously one of the biggest airlines in the world, they had perfected planes, they had the best product. When the government deregulated the aviation sector, Pan Am was effectively dead in a decade, replaced by American Airlines who had pivoted using a Type-S loonshot – they created the CRMs travel agents used to book flights, making them one of the first great data companies. American Airlines used that data to inform strategies that made them more competitive than Pan Am could ever be, even with their fancier planes. You must keep your eye on both the P-type and S-type innovations in your company and prioritize different teams at different times.
Safe Harbors: Establishing the Loonshot Factory
After hours of paddling across the Ottawa River, and before crossing at its widest point just before Pembroke Ontario, there is a tranquil cove which offers a bit of respite—a place to rest, reflect, and prepare for the next challenge. This sanctuary is a Loonshot Factory. It's a protected space within organizations where high-risk, high-reward ideas are nurtured away from the harsh scrutiny that often snuffs them out prematurely. Just as a kayaker needs a calm bay to recharge, innovators need an environment where creativity is shielded until it's robust enough to face the open sea. This is where Bahcall introduces the concept of the loonshot factory, a safe harbor for ideas to grow before they’re tested in open waters. The loonshot factory is a protected space for nurturing high-risk ideas without the pressure to perform right away. Just as a sheltered bay offers calm waters for skill-building, the loonshot factory provides a critical environment for testing, refining, and protecting new ideas. Here, innovation is given the chance to take shape, free from premature judgments and stormy criticism.
Balancing Act: The Power of Dynamic Equilibrium
Kayaking demands constant adjustments—leaning into the waves, correcting your course due to wind, maintaining momentum—all while preserving energy for long journey. Bahcall introduces the concept of Dynamic Equilibrium, the delicate balance between fostering radical innovation and ensuring efficient execution. Organizations, like kayakers, must remain agile, ready to accommodate new plans and enivronments without losing sight of their core mission. It's this equilibrium that keeps both the kayaker and the company afloat and moving forward. This dance is called dynamic equilibrium — the delicate, active balance between forces. Organizations that don’t find this equilibrium either tip over, losing their way in a frenzy of wild ideas without direction, or get marooned in a stagnant bay of routine.
Embracing the Adventure: The Crazy Ones
I love kayaking long challenging routes regardless of weather and find a bond with others who also chase sunsets and sunrises driven by passion. Loonshots teach us that to navigate the tumultuous waters of progress, we must balance boldness with stability, protect our fragile ideas, and be willing to explore diverse paths. Bahcall pays tribute to “The Crazy Ones”, encouraging us to embrace and nurture those wild ideas and the people behind them. These are the innovators who push beyond conventional boundaries, unafraid of the unknown. They understand that true discovery lies not in the safety of the harbor but in the willingness to embark into open waters.
Have you embarked on your own journey of innovation or faced the challenges of nurturing a loonshot within your organization? I'd love to hear your stories and insights.
